Thursday… a mix of sun and clouds with a high temperature of 44 degrees.
Thursday night… clear skies with a low of 32 degrees.
Friday… mostly sunny with a high of 57 degrees.
Friday night… partly cloudy skies with a low of 31 degrees.
Saturday… partly cloudy with a high of 50 degrees.
Saturday night… partly cloudy with a low of 30 degrees.
Sunday… partly cloudy with a high of 36 degrees.
Sunday night… partly cloudy with a low of 20 degrees.
Monday… partly cloudy with a high of 43 degrees.
Tuesday night… cloudy with showers and thunderstorms beginning after 9 PM, mixing with snow around 3 AM, becoming all snow after 5 AM. Low of 28 degrees. Northeast winds 15-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph late.
Wednesday…mostly cloudy with snow ending in the morning. Total snow accumulations of 1-3″ possible. High of 30 degrees, falling during the afternoon. Northwest winds 20-25 mph, gusting to near 40 mph during the afternoon.
Wednesday night… cold with cloudy skies slowly becoming clear overnight. Low of 11 degrees.
Thursday… mostly sunny with a high temperature of 39 degrees.
Thursday night… clear skies with a low of 30 degrees.
Friday… mostly sunny with a high of 54 degrees.
Friday night… partly cloudy skies with a low of 31 degrees.
Saturday… partly cloudy with a high of 50 degrees.
Saturday night… partly cloudy with a low of 29 degrees.
Sunday… partly cloudy with a high of 45 degrees.
Discussion: Temperatures have already begun falling in Champaign-Urbana with the passage of a cold front, and precipitation will begin moving into the area within the next hour or two in the form of showers and thunderstorms, changing to snow by morning.
After seeing high temperatures in the middle to upper 60s in the region, we have fallen into the lower 50s with the passage of a cold front around the dinner hour. Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop to our southwest near St. Louis, and those should begin moving into our area between 9 and 10 PM. Some embedded thunderstorms are possible, and rain may at times be heavy. With already saturated ground from previous snow melting, we could see standing water fairly quickly overnight.
Moderate to heavy rain should begin mixing with some large snowflakes around 3 AM, before slowly changing to all snow by 4 or 5 AM. At this time, the heaviest precipitation should already be exiting the area. A brief period of heavy wet snow is possible between 5-7 AM, but snow should begin tapering off shortly after, ending by 9 AM. Winds will continue to increase to around 20-25 mph, perhaps gusting to near 40 mph, so blowing snow may be an issue in rural areas.
I am seeing many forecasts calling for between 3″ and 7″ of total snowfall accumulation in Champaign, but I just do not see us seeing totals that high. As stated earlier, the heaviest precipitation should be leaving our area before we transition to all snow, and the heavy wet snow that follows around sunrise will have trouble accumulating quickly. I just don’t think we will see 3-7″ stack up in the 3-4 hour period that we see all snow in C-U. I have been wrong, and will be wrong again many times when forecasting snow totals, and tonight may be one of them, but I am having a hard time budging from my 1-3″ total snow accumulation forecast for Champaign tonight and tomorrow morning.
Snow will quickly exit around 9 AM, with skies slowly clearing toward sunset. Cold air will follow, with temperatures slowly falling through the day on gusty northwest winds. After two days in the 60s, this will probably be quite a shock to our systems.
Clear skies and calming winds will allow temperatures to plummet on Wednesday night, falling into the teens with ease. With less snowfall than computer models are forecasting, I do think we’ll have trouble seeing single digit low temperatures, and will likely bottom out right above 10 degrees.
The good news is, we will warm back up in the days that follow, returning to the 50s by Friday afternoon and quickly melting any snow that does fall tonight.
Tuesday… a mix of clouds and sunshine early, becoming mostly cloudy by afternoon. High temperature of 67 degrees.
Tuesday night… cloudy with showers and thunderstorms beginning after 9 PM, changing to snow after 3 AM. Low of 30 degrees.
Wednesday…mostly cloudy with snow ending in the morning. Some minor snow accumulations around 1″ possible. High of 34 degrees.
Wednesday night… partly cloudy with any lingering rain or snow ending early in the evening. Low of 19 degrees.
Thursday… clearing skies with a high temperature of 39 degrees.
Thursday night… clear skies with a low of 30 degrees.
Friday… mostly sunny with a high of 52 degrees.
Friday night… partly cloudy skies with a low of 33 degrees.
Saturday… partly cloudy with a high of 48 degrees.
Discussion: Another beautiful early spring day on Tuesday before another storm system brings a mixed bag of thunderstorms, rain, and heavy wet snow to the area.
A cold front will slowly sink into the area, but warm southerly flow ahead of a deepening low pressure system will keep temperatures near 60 degrees during the afternoon. After sunset, thunderstorms and heavy rain should begin developing along the cold front as it pushes into the area. The best chance for any thunder in the Champaign-Urbana area would be between 9 PM and midnight on Tuesday. Afterward, a moderate to heavy rain should continue into the night before transitioning into a heavy wet snow that should last into the morning hours. While some more significant accumulations of 4″ or more are possible to our north, I do believe the CU area should see no more than 1-2″ of heavy wet snow, before it tapers off during the day on Wednesday.
Skies should clear quickly behind the system on Wednesday evening, and remain mostly clear through the day on Thursday. As temperatures warm back into the 40s and 50s on Thursday and Friday, any accumulating snow should quickly melt away.
An updated discussion on thunder and snow chances will be posted early on Tuesday morning.
Monday… sunny skies with a high temperature of 63 degrees. Southwest winds 12-18 mph.
Monday night… clear skies with a low of 35 degrees. Southwest winds 10-15 mph.
Tuesday… some sunshine early, becoming mostly cloudy during the afternoon. High temperature of 56 degrees.
Tuesday night… mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and thunderstorms, changing to snow late. Low of 30 degrees.
Wednesday…mostly cloudy with a chance of snow ending in the morning. Some minor snow accumulations around 1″ possible. High of 34 degrees.
Wednesday night… partly cloudy with any rain or snow ending early in the evening. Low of 20 degrees.
Thursday… clearing skies with a high temperature of 43 degrees.
Thursday night… clear skies with a low of 30 degrees.
Friday… mostly sunny with a high of 55 degrees.
Discussion: Beautiful weather on tap for the next 48 hours before another quick moving storm system brings a brief dose of cold air and a chance for some minor snow accumulations.
In between storm systems on Monday and Tuesday we will see abundant sunshine and strong southwesterly winds usher in the warmest temperatures we have seen yet in 2014. Much of central Illinois should easily warm into the 60s, with areas to the southwest near St. Louis approaching 70 degrees. In Champaign we should top out somewhere in the lower 60s.
With clear skies and calm winds temperatures will dip back into the upper 30s overnight, before warming back into the middle 50s for our Tuesday. A cold front will sink into the region before stalling out very near Champaign-Urbana. The proximity of the cold front will determine whether we approach the 60 degree mark once again, or fall just short. It appears at this point we will likely top out in the middle 50s, but with more sunshine in store this will hardly be a day to complain about.
Our next weather maker approaches from the west on Tuesday night. Rain will begin to move into the area after dark on Tuesday night, and should change to a heavy wet snow sometime after midnight. There could be some significant accumulations just to the north of the CU area, but any accumulations in our area should remain fairly light. We could see anywhere between a trace, to perhaps a couple of inches, but any snow that sticks around should melt quickly as we warm back up in the following days.
Any lingering snowfall should exit the area before the lunch hour on Wednesday afternoon, and we’ll see skies clearing up by evening. Clear skies and calm winds behind the passing cold front will allow temperatures to drop into the 20s for a brisk overnight, but under sunny skies we will quickly return to seasonable warm high temperatures in the 40s and 50s on Thursday and Friday.
Sunday… mostly cloudy skies slowly clearing toward evening. High temperature of 44 degrees. West winds 5-10 mph.
Sunday night… clear skies with a low temperature of 32 degrees. Southwest winds 10-15 mph.
Monday… sunny skies with a high temperature of 63 degrees. Southwest winds 15-20 mph.
Monday night… clear skies with a low of 38 degrees. Southwest winds 10-15 mph.
Tuesday… some sunshine early, becoming mostly cloudy during the afternoon. High temperature of 57 degrees.
Tuesday night… mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow late. Low of 31 degrees.
Wednesday…mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow early in the morning. Some minor snow accumulations possible. High of 37 degrees.
Wednesday night… partly cloudy with any rain or snow ending early in the evening. Low of 23 degrees.
Thursday… clearing skies with a high temperature of 44 degrees.
Discussion: After a brief cool-down on Saturday, we will begin warming again during the early part of the week. A fairly docile Sunday and Monday will be on tap before another round of precipitation moves into the area late on Tuesday into Wednesday.
Patchy fog will be possible early on Sunday morning, but clearing skies and gusty southwest winds will usher in warmer temperatures as most areas hit the middle 40s. In between quick moving storm systems on Monday, we’ll see a good chance of temperatures soaring into the 60s. Winds will again be gusty at times out of the west/southwest, but for the most part we’ll be enjoying another beautiful early spring day. I will be cleaning off the dust and going for the first bike ride of the year on Monday afternoon.
It appears the next wave approaching from the west will hold off long enough for another pleasant day Tuesday. A cold front will slowly sink into the area and stall just to our south. While we will cool off some from the warmth of Monday, we should still see another mild afternoon with temperatures topping out in the middle 50s.
I was worried for a time that we would see some accumulating snow late Tuesday night into early Wednesday, but it appears the next storm system will see some phasing issues and not be quite as well organized as previously forecast. We will still see some light rain changing to a heavy wet snow during the early morning hours of Tuesday night / Wednesday morning. While some areas may see some minor accumulations, these should not stick around long as we begin to warm up again on Thursday and Friday.
There are some indications we could see another cool down next week, but we’ll ignore that for now and bask in the spring glory that is the next 48-72 hours.
http://www.news-gazette.com/event/museums-planetarium/world-science-talk-confessions-storm-chaser
I will be returning to Parkland College, to the Staerkel Planetarium where I spent several college astronomy courses. David Leake, the planetarium director and I decided on the topic “Confessions of a Storm Chaser” last fall when we planned the talk, and I sort of worked my talk around it.
I’ll primarily be focusing on some misconceptions about storm chasing in general, and the planning that goes into a storm chase. I’ll close with a view of my favorite tornado videos from the last 5 years. I’ll never turn away an opportunity to talk about severe weather.
The newest 8-14 (and even the 1-3 month) outlook shows well below normal temperatures across most of the continental US as the east coast trough continues to sit in place, ushering in cold arctic air and periodic snow chances.
I had the afternoon off and have been dying to get out and photograph something, but the hazy gray sky in advance of the next little system has everything spilled in the worst photographic light. So I did my taxes instead.
I keep checking the long term models hoping to see our next taste of spring, but no sign yet.
I realized at about noon this afternoon that I had probably messed up and should be in the car headed for western Illinois to play with the thunderstorms that developed near the warm front on the surface low. Things just started to get that look, but it was too late for me to do much about it.
A big congrats to a few friends of mine that did make the trip out, and were rewarded by that elusive warm front surprise tornado near Jacksonville, IL around 3 PM. I know Skip Talbot, Paul Hadfield, and Dan Robinson caught the fast moving rope, and am sure a couple others were nearby as well.
I was able to at least spend a chunk of the morning outdoors, mostly working on my pothole ravaged car. With the bouts of extreme cold and heavy precipitation this winter, the pothole situation is awful around Champaign-Urbana. I blew my second tire in a month coming home on Tuesday night.
The ground fog out in rural areas as warm air streamed in over the rapidly melting snow cover was pretty intense as well. And now that wind… gusting to 52 mph here already, it will be howling all night. I’ve realized how much I just like to “hear” the sky at night. Getting excited about sleeping to the loud howling wind tonight, I remembered how amazing laying in bed with the thunder early this morning was, and how I love sleeping to the sound of pouring rain. I guess I just need to be able to hear the weather while I rest.
A new year, time to keep up with things on here.
A winter storm accompanied by a blast of arctic air in the midwest has me longing for convective times. With temperatures dipping to -15F in these parts, I can’t help but hope I am earning so many tornadoes this spring.
Rather than touch on the fact that I just completed my first tornadoless calendar year since 2005, I’ll share a couple of photos of the storm from downtown Champaign on Sunday afternoon. I have never seen white out conditions like this in a downtown setting before. With over 250,000 miles now, handling this snow storm and the sub-zero temperatures without flinching, I can’t praise that bright yellow Mazda enough.
A lot of these clips have been done to death on my end, but I got bored the other night and had a folder of time lapse segments from the last year or two that I had still yet to find a use for so I threw them in a new little compilation video with some older stuff.
I did not get out during the recent tornado outbreak on November 17th. At this point I am trying to get ideas together for whatever it is I plan on doing in 2014. The cold weather has me lacking motivation, but I need to make myself get out there for the winter optics season. There will be many late nights of astrophotography on the horizon.
Sky Drama 